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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 35 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to ATL 12, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 35-A.Williams to ATL 20 for 8 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.92 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 26, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model