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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 57

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 35

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to CIN 5, Center-48-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-12-K.Hodge. PENALTY on CIN-44-C.Johnston, Unnecessary Roughness, 2 yards, enforced at CIN 5.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.86 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 57, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model