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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 57

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CIN 8, Center-48-L.McCullough. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 29 for 21 yards (53-N.Kwiatkoski).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.41 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 57, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model