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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 82

Chicago Bears 10 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 16-T.Gill punts 46 yards to NE 36, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-Ma.Jones pushed ob at NE 45 for 9 yards (57-J.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.73 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 82, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model