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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Chicago Bears
4th & 5 at the 24
Chicago Bears 0 – New England Patriots 0
What Actually Happened
(9:06) 2-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
The Three Options
GO
+1.13 EP
-
40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.63 EP
- 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP
KICK
+1.20 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
- 12% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
