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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 19

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 3-C.York 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.81 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 19, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 29, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP