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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 37

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.21 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 37, worth -1.82 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model