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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 14

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.26 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP