Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

(14:17) 11-J.Stout punts 69 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 12 for 6 yards (26-G.Stone).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.11 EP
63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model