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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 16

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.15 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 16, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model