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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 34

Detroit Lions 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 17-M.Badgley 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.35 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model