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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 17 at the 82

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to DET 26, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 39 for 13 yards (85-N.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 82, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 40, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model