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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 20 at the 85

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to DET 36, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 85, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model