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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 50

Detroit Lions 6 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to DAL 7, Center-47-S.Daly. 9-K.Turpin to DET 41 for 52 yards (5-D.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.06 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model