Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 45

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.91 EP
70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP

KICK -0.44 EP

47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
53% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model