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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 47

Detroit Lions 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 47-S.Daly to DET 39 for -14 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by DET-3-J.Fox at DET 39. 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to end zone, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model