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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 71

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to DET 21, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP