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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 5-B.Anger punts 43 yards to DET 30, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 31, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model