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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 3

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 19-B.Maher 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +3.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.49 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 3, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.87 EP