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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to IND 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines to IND 33 for 11 yards (86-K.Rader, 20-L.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.55 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model