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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 34

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(7:25) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to TEN 20 for 14 yards (37-A.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.90 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model