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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 20

Tennessee Titans 13 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(13:51) 14-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.00 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model