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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 6-M.Haack punts 28 yards to TEN 45, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-81-M.Alie-Cox.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model