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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 6-M.Haack punts 32 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-38-T.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.84 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model