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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 30

Tennessee Titans 16 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 14-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.96 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model