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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to IND 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines pushed ob at IND 23 for 12 yards (40-D.Hilliard).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 23, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model