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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 32

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.98 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model