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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 48

Kansas City Chiefs 44 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 5-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to SF 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.57 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP