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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 41

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.47 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model