Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(9:52) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to TB 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 1-J.Darden to TB 30 for 7 yards (34-S.Chandler).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model