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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model