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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 81

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 10-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to TB 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 1-J.Darden to TB 27 for 8 yards (42-S.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.01 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP