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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(7:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Otton.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.48 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP