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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 38

Carolina Panthers 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 10-J.Hekker punts 25 yards to TB 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.01 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.10 EP