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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 47

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 5-J.Camarda punts 37 yards to CAR 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.18 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model