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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 49

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 5-J.Camarda punts 43 yards to BAL 6, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-10-S.Miller.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.13 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model