Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(12:47) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to TB 11, Center-46-N.Moore. 30-D.Delaney MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BAL-25-K.Seymour at TB 6.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.76 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model