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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 5-J.Camarda punts 66 yards to BAL 10, Center-97-Z.Triner. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 23 for 13 yards (41-K.Kieft).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model