4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 4

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.57 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP