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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 3-R.Succop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.14 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model