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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 3-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 8, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model