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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 12

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.64 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP