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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 6-J.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-4-J.Pierre-Paul, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.72 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 8, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP