Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(5:18) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to TB 19, Center-46-N.Moore. 1-J.Darden to TB 37 for 18 yards (14-K.Hamilton; 46-N.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model