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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 20 at the 85

Chicago Bears 7 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 16-T.Gill punts 52 yards to DAL 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 46 for 13 yards (48-P.Scales; 31-Ja.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -3.39 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 85, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 43, worth -2.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model