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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 55

Chicago Bears 7 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 32-D.Montgomery left end to CHI 47 for 2 yards (7-T.Diggs).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.38 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model