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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 18

Chicago Bears 14 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(:03) 2-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.76 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 18, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model