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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 88

Dallas Cowboys 28 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to CHI 29, Center-45-M.Overton. 18-D.Pettis ran ob at CHI 38 for 9 yards (45-M.Overton).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.87 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 88, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP