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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 23

Chicago Bears 29 – Dallas Cowboys 49

What Actually Happened

(7:22) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 32-D.Montgomery. 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to DAL 17 for 6 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.69 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model