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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 62

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to CLE 22, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.95 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 62, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP